Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19.
Identifieur interne : 000E91 ( Main/Exploration ); précédent : 000E90; suivant : 000E92Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19.
Auteurs : Bhupendra Kumar Verma [Inde] ; Mamta Verma [Inde] ; Vikash Kumar Verma [Inde] ; Rifah B. Abdullah [Royaume-Uni] ; Dilip C. Nath [Inde] ; Hafiz T A. Khan [Royaume-Uni] ; Anita Verma [Inde] ; Ramesh K. Vishwakarma [Arabie saoudite] ; Vivek Verma [Inde]Source :
- Journal of evaluation in clinical practice [ 1365-2753 ] ; 2020.
Abstract
RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES
The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19.
METHOD
Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000-100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000-10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic.
RESULTS
On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.
CONCLUSIONS
In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.
DOI: 10.1111/jep.13483
PubMed: 32970386
Affiliations:
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Abdullah</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Glasgow</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Glasgow</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nath, Dilip C" sort="Nath, Dilip C" uniqKey="Nath D" first="Dilip C" last="Nath">Dilip C. Nath</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Assam University, Silchar, Assam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Assam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, Hafiz T A" sort="Khan, Hafiz T A" uniqKey="Khan H" first="Hafiz T A" last="Khan">Hafiz T A. Khan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, Brentford, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, Brentford</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Brentford</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Verma, Anita" sort="Verma, Anita" uniqKey="Verma A" first="Anita" last="Verma">Anita Verma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" sort="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" uniqKey="Vishwakarma R" first="Ramesh K" last="Vishwakarma">Ramesh K. 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Abdullah</name><affiliation wicri:level="4"><nlm:affiliation>School of Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>School of Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow</wicri:regionArea><orgName type="university">Université de Glasgow</orgName><placeName><settlement type="city">Glasgow</settlement><region type="country">Écosse</region></placeName></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Nath, Dilip C" sort="Nath, Dilip C" uniqKey="Nath D" first="Dilip C" last="Nath">Dilip C. Nath</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Assam University, Silchar, Assam</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Assam</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Khan, Hafiz T A" sort="Khan, Hafiz T A" uniqKey="Khan H" first="Hafiz T A" last="Khan">Hafiz T A. Khan</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, Brentford, UK.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Royaume-Uni</country><wicri:regionArea>College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, Brentford</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Brentford</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Verma, Anita" sort="Verma, Anita" uniqKey="Verma A" first="Anita" last="Verma">Anita Verma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" sort="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" uniqKey="Vishwakarma R" first="Ramesh K" last="Vishwakarma">Ramesh K. Vishwakarma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Department of Biostatistics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Ministry of the National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Arabie saoudite</country><wicri:regionArea>Ministry of the National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>Riyadh</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author><author><name sortKey="Verma, Vivek" sort="Verma, Vivek" uniqKey="Verma V" first="Vivek" last="Verma">Vivek Verma</name><affiliation wicri:level="1"><nlm:affiliation>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India.</nlm:affiliation><country xml:lang="fr">Inde</country><wicri:regionArea>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi</wicri:regionArea><wicri:noRegion>New Delhi</wicri:noRegion></affiliation></author></analytic><series><title level="j">Journal of evaluation in clinical practice</title><idno type="eISSN">1365-2753</idno><imprint><date when="2020" type="published">2020</date></imprint></series></biblStruct></sourceDesc></fileDesc><profileDesc><textClass></textClass></profileDesc></teiHeader><front><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES</b></p><p>The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>METHOD</b></p><p>Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000-100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000-10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>RESULTS</b></p><p>On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.</p></div><div type="abstract" xml:lang="en"><p><b>CONCLUSIONS</b></p><p>In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.</p></div></front></TEI><pubmed><MedlineCitation Status="Publisher" Owner="NLM"><PMID Version="1">32970386</PMID><DateRevised><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></DateRevised><Article PubModel="Print-Electronic"><Journal><ISSN IssnType="Electronic">1365-2753</ISSN><JournalIssue CitedMedium="Internet"><PubDate><Year>2020</Year><Month>Sep</Month><Day>24</Day></PubDate></JournalIssue><Title>Journal of evaluation in clinical practice</Title><ISOAbbreviation>J Eval Clin Pract</ISOAbbreviation></Journal><ArticleTitle>Global lockdown: An effective safeguard in responding to the threat of COVID-19.</ArticleTitle><ELocationID EIdType="doi" ValidYN="Y">10.1111/jep.13483</ELocationID><Abstract><AbstractText Label="RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES" NlmCategory="UNASSIGNED">The recent outbreak of coronavirus (COVID-19) has infected around 1 560 000 individuals till 10 April 2020, which has resulted in 95 000 deaths globally. While no vaccine or anti-viral drugs for COVID-19 are available, lockdown acts as a protective public health measures to reduce human interaction and lower transmission. The study aims to explore the impact of delayed planning or lack of planning for the lockdown and inadequate implementation of the lockdown, on the transmission rate of COVID-19.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="METHOD" NlmCategory="METHODS">Epidemiological data on the incidence and mortality of COVID-19 cases as reported by public health authorities were accessed from six countries based on total number of infected cases, namely, United States and Italy (more than 100 000 cases); United Kingdom, and France (50 000-100 000 cases), and India and Russia (6000-10 000 cases). The Bayesian inferential technique was used to observe the changes (three points) in pattern of number of cases on different duration of exposure (in days) in these selected countries 1 month after World Health Organization (WHO) declaration about COVID-19 as a global pandemic.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="RESULTS" NlmCategory="RESULTS">On comparing the pattern of transmission rates observed in these six countries at posterior estimated change points, it is found that partial implementation of lockdown (in the United States), delayed planning in lockdown (Russia, United Kingdom, and France), and inadequate implementation of the lockdown (in India and Italy) were responsible to the spread of infections.</AbstractText><AbstractText Label="CONCLUSIONS" NlmCategory="CONCLUSIONS">In order to control the spreading of COVID-19, like other national and international laws, lockdown must be implemented and enforced. It is suggested that on-time or adequate implementation of lockdown is a step towards social distancing and to control the spread of this pandemic.</AbstractText><CopyrightInformation>© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.</CopyrightInformation></Abstract><AuthorList CompleteYN="Y"><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Verma</LastName><ForeName>Bhupendra Kumar</ForeName><Initials>BK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Bimal Chandra College of Law, West Bengal, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Verma</LastName><ForeName>Mamta</ForeName><Initials>M</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Law, Kazi Nazrul University, West Bengal, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Verma</LastName><ForeName>Vikash Kumar</ForeName><Initials>VK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Economics, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, West Bengal, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Abdullah</LastName><ForeName>Rifah B</ForeName><Initials>RB</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>School of Psychology, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Nath</LastName><ForeName>Dilip C</ForeName><Initials>DC</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Assam University, Silchar, Assam, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Khan</LastName><ForeName>Hafiz T A</ForeName><Initials>HTA</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1817-3730</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, Brentford, UK.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Verma</LastName><ForeName>Anita</ForeName><Initials>A</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Vishwakarma</LastName><ForeName>Ramesh K</ForeName><Initials>RK</Initials><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Department of Biostatistics, King Abdullah International Medical Research Center, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>King Saud bin Abdulaziz University for Health Sciences, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Ministry of the National Guard - Health Affairs, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author><Author ValidYN="Y"><LastName>Verma</LastName><ForeName>Vivek</ForeName><Initials>V</Initials><Identifier Source="ORCID">https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2537-4431</Identifier><AffiliationInfo><Affiliation>Departments of Neurology, All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), New Delhi, India.</Affiliation></AffiliationInfo></Author></AuthorList><Language>eng</Language><PublicationTypeList><PublicationType UI="D016428">Journal Article</PublicationType></PublicationTypeList><ArticleDate DateType="Electronic"><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>24</Day></ArticleDate></Article><MedlineJournalInfo><Country>England</Country><MedlineTA>J Eval Clin Pract</MedlineTA><NlmUniqueID>9609066</NlmUniqueID><ISSNLinking>1356-1294</ISSNLinking></MedlineJournalInfo><CitationSubset>IM</CitationSubset><KeywordList Owner="NOTNLM"><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">credible interval</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">marginal distribution</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">posterior distribution</Keyword><Keyword MajorTopicYN="N">social distancing</Keyword></KeywordList></MedlineCitation><PubmedData><History><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="received"><Year>2020</Year><Month>06</Month><Day>22</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="revised"><Year>2020</Year><Month>08</Month><Day>29</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="accepted"><Year>2020</Year><Month>09</Month><Day>01</Day></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="entrez"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>24</Day><Hour>12</Hour><Minute>15</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="pubmed"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate><PubMedPubDate PubStatus="medline"><Year>2020</Year><Month>9</Month><Day>25</Day><Hour>6</Hour><Minute>0</Minute></PubMedPubDate></History><PublicationStatus>aheadofprint</PublicationStatus><ArticleIdList><ArticleId IdType="pubmed">32970386</ArticleId><ArticleId IdType="doi">10.1111/jep.13483</ArticleId></ArticleIdList><ReferenceList><Title>REFERENCES</Title><Reference><Citation>Liu Y, Gayle AA, Wilder-Smith A, Rocklöv J. 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PLoS One. 2020;15(5):e0233074. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0233074.</Citation></Reference></ReferenceList></PubmedData></pubmed><affiliations><list><country><li>Arabie saoudite</li><li>Inde</li><li>Royaume-Uni</li></country><region><li>Écosse</li></region><settlement><li>Glasgow</li></settlement><orgName><li>Université de Glasgow</li></orgName></list><tree><country name="Inde"><noRegion><name sortKey="Verma, Bhupendra Kumar" sort="Verma, Bhupendra Kumar" uniqKey="Verma B" first="Bhupendra Kumar" last="Verma">Bhupendra Kumar Verma</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Nath, Dilip C" sort="Nath, Dilip C" uniqKey="Nath D" first="Dilip C" last="Nath">Dilip C. Nath</name><name sortKey="Verma, Anita" sort="Verma, Anita" uniqKey="Verma A" first="Anita" last="Verma">Anita Verma</name><name sortKey="Verma, Mamta" sort="Verma, Mamta" uniqKey="Verma M" first="Mamta" last="Verma">Mamta Verma</name><name sortKey="Verma, Vikash Kumar" sort="Verma, Vikash Kumar" uniqKey="Verma V" first="Vikash Kumar" last="Verma">Vikash Kumar Verma</name><name sortKey="Verma, Vivek" sort="Verma, Vivek" uniqKey="Verma V" first="Vivek" last="Verma">Vivek Verma</name></country><country name="Royaume-Uni"><region name="Écosse"><name sortKey="Abdullah, Rifah B" sort="Abdullah, Rifah B" uniqKey="Abdullah R" first="Rifah B" last="Abdullah">Rifah B. Abdullah</name></region><name sortKey="Khan, Hafiz T A" sort="Khan, Hafiz T A" uniqKey="Khan H" first="Hafiz T A" last="Khan">Hafiz T A. Khan</name></country><country name="Arabie saoudite"><noRegion><name sortKey="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" sort="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" uniqKey="Vishwakarma R" first="Ramesh K" last="Vishwakarma">Ramesh K. Vishwakarma</name></noRegion><name sortKey="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" sort="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" uniqKey="Vishwakarma R" first="Ramesh K" last="Vishwakarma">Ramesh K. Vishwakarma</name><name sortKey="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" sort="Vishwakarma, Ramesh K" uniqKey="Vishwakarma R" first="Ramesh K" last="Vishwakarma">Ramesh K. Vishwakarma</name></country></tree></affiliations></record>Pour manipuler ce document sous Unix (Dilib)
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